Prospects for Global Warming and Energy Legislation in 2008

Reviewing the Political Landscape

Progress within the United States political system on the contentious issues of energy reform and global warming is clearly contingent on the US political process. Developments during 2007 illustrated how difficult a process that can be, but also set the stage for what may come in future years. As the Presidential and Congressional elections play out during this year , the prospects are even less bright for early action, but the outcome of those elections can position the nation for action in the future. What have been those steps during 2007 and to date in 2008 ?

Across the board, whether the venue is international, national or local, the broadly held assumption is that action is both necessary and will be taken becomes clearer. The previous individual and organizational “hold-outs” become fewer and the political strategy moves towards optimizing outcomes for the participants rather than stalling the process.

INTERNATIONAL

The key question internationally continues to be what regime will be put in place to follow on to the Kyoto Protocol which expires in 2012. Recognizing the need for lead time to develop implementing mechanisms and gain ratifications, a target of 2009 for international action is necessary, and discussions have begun as to how that goal can be reached. Following on the talks at the G-8 summit held in Germany during the summer of 2007, a series of international conferences have taken place and the positions of the parties have moved slightly toward convergence.

Recognizing the impending need to negotiate, many of the players are re-evaluating past positions. While the European Union has not abandoned its prior green position, they have admitted that the cap-and-trade mechanism adopted within the EU to implement Kyoto had fatal design flaws and they are redesigning that process. The easy availability of emissions credits made real conservation actions unnecessary, leading to a total devaluation of the credits under the EU trading scheme. Despite this collapse, the EU continues to target significant reductions in greenhouses gases, calling for a 20% cut by 2020 plus an additional 10% if matched by international action. Other nations are showing at least signs of movement, and it was significant that Australia , after its fall election, took steps to ratify the Kyoto agreement, leaving the United States alone among the major nations as a formal non-participant.