April 6, 2009
As America was obsessing over whether or not to bail out Chrysler and General Motors or let them slide into bankruptcy, along came an announcement that brings Titanic deck chairs to mind. The government of China wants it known that their nation intends to become the pre-eminent producer of all-electrically powered autos within three years.
     The New York Times broke the story, but it could be seen in the tea leaves when in December the Chinese company BYD unveiled an all-electric car with a battery it claimed was two years ahead of the competition. BYD (it stands for “Build Your Dreams “)
started as a battery company making rechargeables for phones and laptops. In the sort of rapid metamorphosis now common in China that the U.S. hasn’t seen since the overnight conversion of its car plants to making tanks in World War II, the company is now making not just batteries but a car in which to put them. One interview quoted a BYD executives as saying that making a mobile phone is really hard. Making a car is easier.
     The car costs about $21,000. The lithium-phosphate battery, so says BYD, can take an 80% charge in 15 minutes and will take you 180 miles (300 kilometers). More astonishing still is BYD’s claim that the battery will sustain 2,000 charges, which equates to a lifetime range of about 375,000 miles (600,000 kilometers). Warren Buffett is a believer. He put $230 million into BYD in September.
     In contrast, there’s the Chevrolet Volt, the only all-electric offering from America’s rapidly shrinking big three. Long slated for introduction in November of 2010, the word is out that the schedule has slipped nine months to August 2011. And it will cost $35,000, possibly more, with a South Korean battery that drains after only 40 miles (at which point a gas motor kicks in to continue charging the battery).
     China is pumping research funds into the industry, is offering subsidies of $8,000 per vehicle, about a third of their cost, to taxi fleets and municipalities if they buy either electrics or hybrids, as well as tax credits to consumers who do the same. The government has set a target of 500,000 copies of hybrids or all-electrics by the end of 2011, says a consulting firm quoted in the Times, almost double the 267,000 that the U.S. will be making in spite of its head start in hybrids. The rapid ramping up of an industry attests to the power of China’s unique mixture of state-planning and a market-based economy.
     What about the U.S.? Congress’s 2007 energy bill allotted $25 billion to the Energy Department to spark electric car development. How is that going? Seventy-five companies have applied for funding but not a cent has flowed. The new energy secretary, Steven Chu, s trying to streamline paperwork and add staff.
     The Obama administration’s stimulus program allots $2 billion for battery research but the U.S. is far behind, which portends a future in which we import batteries instead of oil.

     Stephen Wilson

September 24, 2008
While our national search for energy independence is driven by multiple factors — the transfer of national wealth to unstable and unfriendly countries, the specter of peak oil and a concern about the effects of burning more fossil fuels — the state of Israel has even greater reason to seek alternative sources of energy.
     Spurred by the efforts of successful American-Israeli software developer, Shai Agassi, the Israeli government has promised to support the development of an infrastructure to facilitate the use of all-electric cars throughout the country. While most of the focus in the automobile industry has been on hybrids, many agree that it is only an interim solution before new battery technology is available to power all-electric cars with adequate speed and range.
     While all-electric cars have been around more than a 100 years, other attempts to mass produce electric cars in today’s world have been limited by current battery technology. Agassi, however, realized that even with a limited range of 100 miles, most trips are shorter and, meanwhile, the batteries could be recharged or replaced at charging stations or parking areas. In a sense, he saw the battery as a fuel tank which could be replenished during the day, though this will require as many as 500,000 charging installations scattered at parking lots throughout the country.
     Much like a cell phone network, Israelis would subscribe to a monthly service whereby they sign up for so many miles and be charged for the power they use at recharging stations. Using power generated from solar installations in the Negev desert, drivers will be able to either recharge the batteries in their cars or exchange used batteries for fresh ones in special charging outlets.
     Not only will this arrangement reduce the consumption of imported fuel and make Israel more independent of Middle East oil producers, but it will provide a cheaper form of transportation which is emissions free, assuming that the electric power would come from renewable sources.
     Agassi’s company, Project Better Place of Palo Alto, California, will manufacture the batteries and has already contracted with Renault of France and Nissan of Japan to produce 500 cars which will be available next year. Under this arrangement, the owner buys the car from Renault-Nissan and subscribes to a Better Place service which includes use of the battery and the electricity from the charging stations. Denmark and Portugal are considering similar schemes and Renault-Nissan has already committed itself to producing an all-electric car for the U.S. market by 2010.
     Because Better Place owns the battery, a major cost in electric cars, and Israel will provide a 10% tax credit for electric cars through 2015, the price of electric cars will be comparable to regular cars. Since some of the recharging would be done at night, when electricity is cheaper, and the only cost to the consumer would be the energy consumed in driving, the cost of operation should be much less than driving a gas-powered car, especially if gas prices continue to spike. Gasoline currently costs over $6.00 a gallon in Israel.
     A pilot program involving a few dozen cars will start later this year in Tel Aviv and Agassi promises that there will be several thousand electric cars on the road by 2009 and 100,000 by 2010 in Israel.
     Granted, Israel is a relatively small country, with no great distances between destinations, and has more potential for solar power than most countries, but why wouldn’t this model be relevant for larger countries with the potential for wind, solar, hydroelectric or ocean-wave power? It also provides a concrete model for public-private sector cooperation, based on national or public interest.
     If the Israeli model succeeds, Renault-Nissan plans to develop models for other small countries or large urban areas like Paris, London or New York. Even China, with its increasing problems of traffic, pollution and energy costs, is being considered as a potential market for electric cars.
T. Boone Pickens Proposal      In the United States, T. Boone Pickens, who made his fortune in oil, has proposed creating wind power factories in the Midwest wind corridor to replace the use of natural gas for generating electricity and then using natural gas, of which there is an adequate supply, for powering trucks and cars. Many public utilities, transit authorities and businesses have already switched to natural gas for their fleets since it is cheaper and pollutes less. While his declared motivation is stopping the flow of billions of dollars to foreign oil producers, Mr. Pickens has also invested millions in wind farms in the Texas Panhandle.
     Following the Israeli example, and assuming government support for such a program, however, why not convert our automobile fleet to electricity generated by wind and solar power, and perhaps supplemented by natural gas, which, while a fossil fuel, burns cleaner than gasoline or diesel. Given the size of our country, the limited range of electric cars and the problems of transmitting electricity over long distances, switching to all-electric vehicles might not be feasible, however, especially in the West. On the other hand, a combination of electricity-powered vehicles and recharging stations might meet the needs of urban commuters whose daily trips average less than 40 miles.
Parisian Rent-A-Car      The mayor of Paris has proposed a rent-a-car system in which electric cars would be available for rent from outlying suburbs for travel into the city. Thus, rather than owning and insuring a personal car, individuals could go to a rental station and pay for a one-time trip into the city, dropping off the car when they reach a metro station or their destination, thereby making the car available for other trips throughout the day.
     Given Paris’ excellent public transit system, this arrangement might reduce traffic, certainly in the center of the city and eliminate the need for parking lots and the stress of finding a parking place. The idea is that the drop-off vehicle would be rented by another driver going in a different direction, rather than sitting idle in a parking lot for 8-10 hours. Commuters would not have to own and insure their own vehicles, but only pay a small fee for the temporary use of an electric car when it is needed. Many urbanites rely on public transit, yet occasionally need a vehicle for special trips, which this system would provide without the inconvenience and expense of maintenance and storage.
     Since Parisians have readily adopted to a system of sharing bicycles, the Mayor contends that providing safe, community owned and operated electric cars would attract those living outside the city but working in the center of Paris. Called Autolib, the project has plans to have a fleet of 4000 electric cars by 2010, 2000 in Paris, another 2000 in suburbs, at 700 different locations.
     While opponents object that it will increase the dependency on individual vehicles and increase traffic in an already congested city center, one of the central ideas of the concept is to discourage potential car buyers from purchasing their own vehicles, especially a gas-powered car -- in other words getting away from individually-owned vehicles which pollute and require space. But, will there be enough demand for outgoing cars, that is, leaving or entering the city center throughout the workday?
     On another positive note, this arrangement would not require an elaborate new infrastructure, other than providing recharge facilities at the rental and drop-off locations. Since 70% of the electrical power generated in France is from nuclear plants, it would rely mainly on nuclear power.
     For car-crazy Americans, the idea of not owning a car and driving a shared rental car would require a major adjustment, though the savings, convenience and relief might outweigh the rites of ownership for young urbanites.
Nissan Tests Electric Car in Bay Area      Nissan, which has committed to producing all-electric vehicles, has targeted the environmentally sensitive San Francisco Bay Area to test the all-electric car it hopes to make available to the general public in the United States and Japan in 2010. These cars are not just light golf carts; they would hold 4 or 5 people and have a range of 125 miles, more than enough for most daily trips.
     Nissan has plans to introduce 60 different electric models by 2012. Though they will start with smaller cars, the Nissan electric fleet will include a large range of vehicles. They will be powered by a new 80-kilowatt motor with advanced lithium-ion batteries twice as powerful than current conventional ones.
Local Government Agencies Interested      Since all the municipalities in Sonoma County in Northern California have pledged to reduce carbon emissions to 25% of the 1990 level by 2015, county agencies and municipalities are exploring the use of electric cars, vans and trucks for their fleets. While many of these agencies have already purchased hybrid vehicles in order to reduce operating costs and meet emission targets, hybrids still use gasoline and release emissions.
     Though the specifics are not available, these government agencies are now working closely with Nissan and may lease or purchase test models from the company for trial use. From the company’s perspective, Sonoma County provides a unique opportunity for it to road test its vehicles in a friendly environment, and it hopes to be the first major manufacturer to market an emissions-free vehicle in the United States. Imagine the ads featuring quiet, emissions-free cars winding through the wine country or along the coast.
National Priorities      In view of the above, and many other examples of successful new energy technologies, does it make any sense to make a major campaign issue out of offshore drilling in coastal areas or in Alaska, or tapping the Strategic Oil Reserve, when the effect of these efforts would be minimal at best, and certainly problematic? Given the repercussions of recent price hikes, we should explore all options, but why not make a serious proposal for a government-private sector initiative to subsidize and develop new energy technologies and the infrastructure to wean us from not only imported fuels, but also fossil fuels in general? The wealth saved and the jobs created would reinvigorate our economy while contributing to the reduction in greenhouse gasses and their impact on the planet’s health.
     Tony White

For years the public has fantasized about cars that run on water. Thanks to a French invention, the future may now include cars that run on air.
     In the Air Car, compressed air, stored in a reinforced tank, is released slowly to propel pistons, much like in a steam engine, in a super lightweight car of composite materials. Since air expands when heated, an on-board gas engine will heat the air, thereby extending the range and power of the stored air. According to the developers of this concept, this heating process will not only allow the car to reach 95 miles per hour, but also extend the car’s range to 800 miles, with minimal emissions.
     Although still consuming gasoline, diesel or a biofuel, the company estimates the vehicle would get 106 miles to the gallon, far better than existing or proposed hybrids. But, at citywide speeds of 35 miles per hour or less, it could operate almost entirely on air, with the fuel-powered engine kicking in at higher speeds or for longer distances.
     In order to be operational, two tanks would have to be filled: a gas tank and one or more air tanks. Since it would probably take an hour to fill the air tanks, the Air Car would come with an at-home charger in order to avoid hour-long waits at a fueling station. Since the charger would be powered by electricity or other fuel, additional energy would be consumed and emissions released, depending on the source of that power.
Market Potential      MDI, the French company which developed the air car, recently announced that Tata Motors of India has purchased rights to produce and sell the Air Car in India and Europe. An American company, New York based Zero Pollution Motors, has acquired the rights to develop its version for the United States. The announced price for its American designed six-seater Air Car is $17,800, to be available in 2010.
     According to Zero Pollution Motors, the American version would be lightweight, a combination of fiberglass and injected foam, mounted on a lightweight frame of joined aluminum rods. Although challenging current consumer preferences in design and safety, computer models suggest that it would meet national safety standards and be comfortable.
     The process of manufacturing would be in the form of a franchise in which regional lease holders would purchase a license to manufacture the Air Car and establish a factory to produce cars for that market. The cost of a franchise alone would be around $460,000 and production would be limited to 4000 units for sale in that market. The first plant will open in New York in 2010.
     Though skeptics concede that air can be used to propel a car, no one has yet demonstrated that an air-powered sedan will get the mileage or range claimed by MDI, especially for larger models. Others assert that the amount of energy needed to charge the air tanks would equal that of charging an all-electric vehicle. While still in the prototype stage, it also appears that the Air Car’s primary utility would be in urban settings, where speeds and distances would permit the use of air as the major propellant.
     As Congress dithers, President Bush pushes for offshore drilling and American automobile companies struggle to survive in a fuel-conscious market, private initiatives like the Air Car may provide a practical answer to our reliance on fossil fuels and the problems of air pollution and climate change. Although hybrids, electric and hydrogen-propelled cars have received more publicity and funding, this French invention may not only provide a cheaper, cleaner, even silent store of power, but also reduce the transfer of national treasure to unstable and unfriendly suppliers and the loss of American lives and wealth to defend access to those sources.
     Given its still developmental and experimental phase, however, don’t hold your breath for your first car running on hot air. Will it run on regular or super?     - Tony White

Thanks to recent corporate decisions and technological breakthroughs, the prospect of actually owning and driving a fully-electric or plug-in hybrid car is closer to reality. And, if some of the latest models are any indication, you won't have to sacrifice speed or power or worry about the price of gasoline. While some of the major automobile companies are leading the way, other, smaller startup companies or organizations, especially in the San Francisco Bay Area, have also made their mark.
     After announcing the iQ car, Toyota President Katsuaki Watanabe announced that Toyota would also be selling a plug-in hybrid with a lithium-ion battery by 2010, at the latest. Because the crucial technology for plug-in hybrids or purely electrical vehicles is an adequate power storage capacity, Toyota's engineers still have to design a more efficient lithium-ion battery that can be mass produced and be cost effective.
     General Motors and Daimler AG also revealed plans at Geneva to develop lithium-ion hybrids in which an electric motor assists combustion but does not propel the car. Spurred by tougher European fleet standards by 2012, Daimler plans to make a hybrid version of its Mercedes-Benz top-of-the-line model available by 2009. Though it will not match the emissions performance of smaller, more efficient cars, it will be the most efficient luxury car available.
     General Motors' version is a Saab concept car which releases very low carbon emissions running on gasoline, and slightly less on ethanol. Unlike the GM's Volt, in which an electric motor powers the wheels and the gasoline motor recharges the battery, the Saab uses a smaller battery which assists the internal combustion engine. While GM plans to have a market-ready model by 2010, both GM and Daimler AG will have to perfect batteries that do not overheat, and at a reasonable cost.
     Rumors were also circulating that Toyota is working on another concept car that will combine plug-in hybrid and flex-fuel technologies, weigh one third of the Prius, and go 140 miles on a gallon of gas.

A New Detroit in the Bay Area

Better known for its breakthroughs in electronics and personal computers, Silicon Valley is also leading the way in developing new car technology. In the last few years, venture capitalists have invested several hundred million dollars in startup companies developing electrical vehicles in the South Bay.
     Using the lessons from designing a solar-powered car for the American Solar Challenge, a team of former Stanford students formed Tesla Motors five years ago and designed a two-seater electrically-powered sports car. The prototype runs on a large lithium-ion storage battery that weighs 1,000 pounds; nevertheless, it can reach 60 miles per hour in 4 seconds, go 120 miles per hour and travel 200 miles on a single charge.
     Because of its fast acceleration, without noise or exhaust, the engineers had to develop a new transmission, and it is hoped that new battery technology will not only reduce the size of the battery and its cost, but also make it lighter and more efficient. While the electric power unit is adequate for most daily trips, an on-board generator would be available for longer trips.
     Although a number of celebrities have made deposits for cars that will be delivered this spring, including Governor Schwarzenegger, Tesla Motors' future may not be in competing with the large car manufacturers, but in selling its power train technology to them. Like CalCars in Palo Alto, this startup company has helped to convince major car manufacturers to develop more fuel-efficient and less polluting cars. Tesla may have its $50,000 White Star sedan in showrooms in 2010, when GM plans to sell its sporty Volt.
     Also using lithium-ion batteries, Santa Rosa's Thunderstruck Motors in the North Bay has produced an electric powered motorcycle which recently set two records at Infineon racetrack. It is silent and emits no exhaust. A small company, it provides electric kits to convert gasoline motorcycles or scooters to electricity.
     Using the schematics developed by CalCars and made available free, Plug-in Supply in Petaluma, California, sells kits to convert a Toyota Prius Hybrid into a plug-in hybrid vehicle which can go up to 40 miles on a single charge from a household circuit. For faster speeds or longer distances, the gasoline motor kicks in, but the conversion kit increases mileage from 45 to 100 miles per gallon. Though the cost of conversion (as much as $12,000) outweighs the savings, and currently invalidates the Prius 101ty, buyers feel good about protecting the environment and Toyota plans to market its own plug-in hybrid next year. As the technology improves and more kits are produced, the costs will also come down, while the price of gasoline continues to rise.
     One of the question marks about electric vehicles is how the electricity is produced to power the car. Since a much greater amount of the electricity generated in California is from renewable sources -- solar, wind, hydroelectric and geothermal -- electric cars effectively run cleaner than they would in the Midwest, where much of the power is generated by coal-burning power plants. In fact, because of the heightened interest and already extensive use of electric vehicles in the Bay Area, Project Better Place in Palo Alto raised $200 million of new capital in 2007 to develop fuel stations for electric vehicles.

Plug-In Hybrids

As CalCars and others have demonstrated, the technology for plug-in hybrid (PHEV) vehicles already exists, and this non-profit seizes every opportunity to present the plug-in Prius hybrids which it introduced in 2004. Unlike ethanol, other biofuels or hydrogen, the infrastructure for plug-in hybrids is already in place: an electric grid, a 120-volt household socket and an extension cord. By adding a larger battery and some electronic connections, you can convert a Prius to a PHEV which can go up to 40 miles on an electric charge without kicking in the gasoline engine. This will greatly reduce the cost of driving, produce fewer emissions even when taken off the national grid (50% coal), and reduce costly imports of oil.

Technological Revolution

Clearly, the automobile industry is capable of gearing up and developing more fuel-efficient and cleaner vehicles. Encouraged by higher government emissions standards, public awareness and increasing costs of fossil fuels, we may be on the brink of a revolutionary breakthrough in automobile propulsion. Thanks to more renewable sources of energy, new fuels and energy technology, not only private transportation, but all forms of transport, power generation, lighting, heating and air conditioning, as well as manufacturing, are likely to be transformed.
     While the development of more efficient high-end luxury cars is noteworthy, is it progress when smaller, more fuel-efficient automobiles or public transit would consume less energy and pollute less, thereby harming the planet less? The owner of the luxury car may feel better about releasing fewer emissions than driving an old model, but he or she is still contributing significantly more to global warming.
     Whether traveling in private jets and purchasing carbon offsets or building a huge second home using green materials and techniques, those who consume more put more pressure on the planet to produce those extra resources and in the process, generate more greenhouse gasses. While China and India are catching up, it is the wealthy industrialized countries which have released the greatest quantity of carbon emissions and created the threat of global warming. According to most scenarios, it will also be the poorest of the poor who will suffer the most from climate change.
          - Tony White